Knowledge base · Article series

Ten Years That Changed Evaluation

Key developments in monitoring, evaluation and learning, 2016–2026

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Twelve moments that frame the series. Each is developed in one of the articles below. Figure: evaluacia.sk, based on the sources cited in the article.

How to read this series

This review is written for people who already practise or commission monitoring, evaluation and learning (MEL) and who know the standard toolkit: the OECD DAC criteria, randomised controlled trials (RCTs) as the reference design for impact evaluation, contribution analysis, participatory evaluation, Most Significant Change. It does not re-explain those.

Instead it asks what has changed around them in roughly the last ten years — which new approaches have become mainstream, which words you now need to recognise in a terms of reference or a conference programme, and which arguments remain unsettled.

Each of the twelve sections follows the same pattern: what changed, the frameworks and tools that carry the change, the vocabulary, the live controversies, and a short list of further reading that mixes expert media and blogs with peer-reviewed journals. A glossary of the decade's lingo and a list of outlets worth following close the page. Links were checked in September 2026; journal links go to the publisher's page, which may be paywalled, and open-access versions are noted where they exist.

Three cross-cutting shifts frame everything that follows. First, the centre of gravity moved from measuring toward learning and adapting: the very acronym changed from M&E to MEL (and MEAL in humanitarian agencies). Second, the methods debate broadened from "RCT or nothing" into a plural, theory-based, judgement-explicit repertoire, while RCTs themselves reached their institutional peak with the 2019 Nobel prize.

Third, questions of power — who defines value, who owns evidence, whose knowledge counts — moved from the margins of evaluation theory into donor policy, professional standards and, in 2025, a political backlash. The dismantling of USAID in 2025 then removed the single largest buyer of MEL services in the world and turned many of these debates from theoretical to existential.

The twelve articles

Each article follows the same pattern: what changed, the frameworks and tools that carry the change, the vocabulary, the live controversies and further reading.

01

The learning turn: from M&E to MEL, and the critique of the results agenda

The 2010s opened with the results agenda at full strength — logframes, value-for-money frameworks, standard indicators, "payment by results" — and closed with a broad consensus that measurement had crowded out learning.

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02

Complexity, systems and adaptive management

Complexity thinking moved from the margins of evaluation theory into donor policy.

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03

Causal inference beyond the RCT: theory-based methods come of age

Two things happened at once.

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04

Value, judgement and money: rubrics, evaluative reasoning and value for money

Value for money (VfM) moved from a donor compliance box toward an evaluative discipline.

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05

Equity, decolonisation and localisation

Culturally responsive evaluation (Stafford Hood, Rodney Hopson) was already established in the United States by 2016; what changed afterwards was the shift from adapting methods to context toward explicit critiques…

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06

Global governance of evaluation: criteria, norms, competencies and the SDG era

The 2015 International Year of Evaluation produced EvalPartners' Global Evaluation Agenda 2016–2020, organised around enabling environments, institutional capacities, individual capacities and their inter-linkages,…

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07

Evidence-informed policy and government evaluation

Outside the aid sector, the decade brought a more sober view of how evidence enters policy.

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08

Data, technology and artificial intelligence in MEL

The "MERL Tech" community (Linda Raftree, Wayan Vota and others, first conference 2014) pushed mobile data collection, dashboards, big data and machine learning into M&E while simultaneously building the "responsible…

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09

Impact measurement in philanthropy, impact investing and ESG

A parallel measurement world grew up next to evaluation, largely without evaluators.

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10

Humanitarian, fragile and climate contexts

ALNAP's 2016 Evaluation of Humanitarian Action guide and its State of the Humanitarian System series (a 2026 edition was scheduled for September 2026) remained the sector's evaluative baseline, and the 2022 edition…

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11

The 2025 funding shock and MEL after USAID

On 20 January 2025 an executive order froze US foreign assistance for review.

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12

What it adds up to: a practitioner's synthesis

Ten years on, the repertoire is wider and the ground less certain.

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Glossary of the decade's lingo

Adaptive management / adaptive rigour
running programmes as iterative experiments and holding them to explicit evidence standards while doing so (section 2)
AAP (accountability to affected populations)
humanitarian commitment to give crisis-affected people influence over decisions; measured through feedback mechanisms (section 10)
Blue Marble Evaluation
Patton's framework for evaluating at global and planetary scale (sections 2, 10)
CLA (Collaborating, Learning and Adapting)
USAID's framework for organisational learning across the programme cycle (section 1)
Coherence
the sixth OECD DAC criterion added in 2019: compatibility with other interventions in a country, sector or institution (section 6)
Complexity-aware monitoring
monitoring approaches designed for non-linear, emergent change: sentinel indicators, outcome harvesting, process monitoring of impacts (section 2)
Contribution tracing / Bayesian updating
process tracing formalised with explicit prior and posterior confidence in a causal claim (section 3)
CREE (culturally responsive and equitable evaluation)
the umbrella term that succeeded "culturally responsive evaluation" in the United States (section 5)
Double materiality
the CSRD test requiring companies to report both how sustainability issues affect them and how they affect people and planet (section 9)
Evaluative reasoning / rubrics
making the criteria and standards behind an evaluative judgement explicit, usually in a rubric (section 4)
Evidence gap map
a matrix of interventions against outcomes showing where rigorous studies exist (section 3)
Footprint evaluation
assessing the environmental footprint of any intervention regardless of sector (section 10)
IMM (impact measurement and management)
the impact-investing sector's term for measuring and steering impact, organised around the IMP five dimensions (section 9)
Impact washing
overstating or fabricating social or environmental impact for reputational or commercial gain (section 9)
Lean data
short, remote surveys of beneficiaries or customers as a low-cost impact measure (section 8)
Learning agenda / learning partner
a planned set of questions an organisation commits to answering over time, and an external actor engaged to help it learn rather than to audit it (section 1)
Localisation / locally led
shifting funding and decision power to local actors; measured by USAID through a dedicated indicator until 2025 (section 5)
Made in Africa Evaluation
evaluation grounded in African values, knowledge and the AfrEA standards (section 5)
MEL / MEAL
monitoring, evaluation and learning; with "accountability" added in humanitarian usage (section 1)
MERL Tech
the community and conference series on technology in monitoring, evaluation, research and learning (section 8)
Milestones and targets
the Recovery and Resilience Facility's disbursement conditions; criticised as tracking inputs rather than results (section 6)
Outcomes-based contracting / impact bond
paying for verified outcomes rather than activities; evidence base remains thin (section 9)
PDIA (problem-driven iterative adaptation)
the Harvard Building State Capability approach to reform through local problem-solving and iteration (section 2)
Polycrisis
the framing of interacting global crises that evaluation is now asked to address (section 10)
QCA (qualitative comparative analysis)
set-theoretic comparison of cases to identify necessary and sufficient combinations of conditions (section 3)
QuIP (qualitative impact protocol)
a "blindfolded" qualitative attribution method developed at Bath (section 3)
Randomista
a partly pejorative label for advocates of RCTs as the gold standard (section 3)
Responsible data
principles for collecting, storing and sharing data about people ethically (section 8)
Spending review
a systematic review of public expenditure for efficiency and effectiveness, institutionalised in Slovakia by the Value for Money Unit (section 4)
Third-party monitoring
outsourced monitoring in places where the funder cannot go (section 10)
Thinking and working politically (TWP)
designing and running programmes with explicit attention to power and political economy (section 2)
Trust-based philanthropy
a funder practice built on multi-year unrestricted grants, simplified reporting and shared learning (section 9)
Value for Investment
Julian King's rubric-based approach to value for money (section 4)

Where to follow the field

Expert media and blogs. BetterEvaluation (methods and approaches library, now hosted by the Global Evaluation Initiative); AEA365 (daily posts from the American Evaluation Association); EvalForward (FAO/IFAD/WFP practitioner community); From Poverty to Power (Duncan Green); Center for Global Development blogs; ODI insights; 3ie blogs; the World Bank's Development Impact blog; IEG at the World Bank; MERL Tech and ICTworks; Rick Davies's Monitoring and Evaluation News; Devex for sector news; Stanford Social Innovation Review and Alliance for philanthropy.

Academic journals. Evaluation (SAGE; the European Evaluation Society's journal); American Journal of Evaluation; New Directions for Evaluation (Wiley; themed issues); Journal of MultiDisciplinary Evaluation (open access); Evaluation and Program Planning (Elsevier); Canadian Journal of Program Evaluation; African Evaluation Journal (open access); Journal of Development Effectiveness (3ie's journal); Evaluation Journal of Australasia; Evaluační teorie a praxe (Czech Evaluation Society, with English-language articles).

Professional bodies and events. European Evaluation Society (biennial conference); American Evaluation Association (annual conference, November); UK Evaluation Society; International Evaluation Academy; EvalPartners; gLOCAL Evaluation Week (June); Czech Evaluation Society; IPDET and the EPDET programme for training.

Corrections and additions are welcome; this page will be updated as the field moves.

About the author. Andrej Salner is an economist and evaluator, co-founder of the Slovak Governance Institute and of evaluacia.sk. He has designed and led evaluations for Slovak ministries, EU and EEA programmes and NGOs since 2004. More about the team · Impact measurement & evaluation services.
A note on authorship and method. This series was researched and written by Andrej Salner with the assistance of AI tools (large language models used for literature search, summarising and drafting). The framing, the selection of sources, the judgements and the final text are the author's, and the author takes responsibility for them; links were checked in September 2026. The Slovak version is an AI-assisted translation of the English original, reviewed by the author. Corrections and additions are welcome at info@evaluacia.sk.