Ten Years That Changed Evaluation · Part 10 of 12

Humanitarian, fragile and climate contexts

Humanitarian and climate evaluation milestones2015201720192021202320252027ALNAP EHA guide;Grand Bargain"participationrevolution"GEF IEO evaluationof transformationalchangeBlue MarbleEvaluation;footprint evaluationGCFadaptation-portfolioevaluationSOHS 2022:stagnation onlocalisation and AAPEES conference onpolycrisis; IEAcThree HorizonsSOHS 2026 edition
Two strands that converged on "evaluating transformation". Source: ALNAP, The State of the Humanitarian System. Figure: evaluacia.sk, based on the sources cited in the article.

What changed

ALNAP's 2016 Evaluation of Humanitarian Action guide and its State of the Humanitarian System series (a 2026 edition was scheduled for September 2026) remained the sector's evaluative baseline, and the 2022 edition documented stagnation on localisation and accountability to affected populations.

The 2016 Grand Bargain, with its "participation revolution" workstream and annual independent reviews by ODI, kept AAP and locally-led evaluation on the agenda, while critics noted that feedback mechanisms rarely change decisions. Access constraints in Syria, Somalia, Yemen and Afghanistan turned third-party monitoring into an industry in itself, raising questions about data sharing and the transfer of risk to local monitors.

On climate, the GEF Independent Evaluation Office's 2018 evaluation of support for transformational change, the Green Climate Fund's real-time impact evaluations and its 2021 adaptation-portfolio evaluation defined what "evaluating transformation" and adaptation measurement mean in practice. Andy Rowe's "footprint evaluation" initiative argued that every evaluation should assess environmental footprint regardless of sector, and Patton's Blue Marble Evaluation pushed evaluators to work at planetary scale.

From 2022 the "polycrisis" framing entered evaluation discourse through the European Evaluation Society's 2024 conference theme and the International Evaluation Academy's Three Horizons initiative.

Frameworks and tools

  • ALNAP EHA guide
  • Core Humanitarian Standard and AAP indicators
  • third-party monitoring
  • GEF and GCF transformational-change frameworks
  • real-time impact evaluation (LORTA)
  • footprint evaluation and "sustainability-ready" evaluation
  • Blue Marble principles
  • nature-based solutions evaluation handbooks

Vocabulary to recognise

  • AAP
  • participation revolution
  • localisation
  • third-party monitoring
  • remote monitoring
  • transformational change
  • resilience
  • adaptation
  • footprint
  • Anthropocene
  • polycrisis
  • permacrisis
  • nexus (humanitarian–development–peace)

Live controversies

Whether the DAC criteria (even after 2019) are fit for interconnected crises; "transformation-washing" of incremental projects; the ethics of third-party monitoring in conflict; and whether evaluation can or should take a normative stance on planetary boundaries.

Further reading

About the author. Andrej Salner is an economist and evaluator, co-founder of the Slovak Governance Institute and of evaluacia.sk. He has designed and led evaluations for Slovak ministries, EU and EEA programmes and NGOs since 2004. More about the team · Impact measurement & evaluation services.
A note on authorship and method. This series was researched and written by Andrej Salner with the assistance of AI tools (large language models used for literature search, summarising and drafting). The framing, the selection of sources, the judgements and the final text are the author's, and the author takes responsibility for them; links were checked in September 2026. The Slovak version is an AI-assisted translation of the English original, reviewed by the author. Corrections and additions are welcome at info@evaluacia.sk.
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